S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said rising rates and increased European energy insecurity are hitting growth in almost every country, but India with an estimated 7.3 per cent growth this fiscal, would be the ‘star’ among emerging market economies.
In a report, S&P said global macro performance over the next few quarters points towards growth slowdown with tightening financial conditions amid rate hikes by central banks. Most leading and sentiment indicators are pointing toward slower growth as well.
Growth eased in the second quarter across emerging markets as inflation reduced real household income, business confidence deteriorated, and the external environment became more complicated, it said.
Emerging-market central banks have been ahead of their advanced-country counterparts in hiking policy rates, and in Latin America they are now near the end of their tightening cycles.
Elsewhere, core inflation continues to rise, suggesting there is more work to do. Large recent hikes by the US Federal Reserve are exacerbating balance-of-payment strains across emerging markets.
“For the 16 emerging economies that we cover, excluding China, 2022 GDP growth will hit 5.2 per cent this year, in our view. This forecast is up 30 basis points from our previous round. India is the star of this group with growth of 7.3 per cent this fiscal year (ending in March 2023),” S&P said.
The US-based agency said as central banks aggressively raise rates to fight inflation, our confidence is waning that they can avoid generating a sharp downturn.
“We are now expecting a mild recession in the US,” it said, adding that rising rates, increased European energy insecurity, and the lingering effects of Covid-19 are hitting growth almost everywhere.
“This may be the most anticipated economic slowdown on record, but the data have yet to fully fall in line,” S&P said.